Core vs. Headline Inflation Targeting in Models with Incomplete Markets

In models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We develop a two-sector new-Keynesian model to evaluate different inflation targeting rules in economies with financial frictions. We conclude that, in the presence of financial frictions, a welfaremaximizing central bank should adopt flexible headline inflation targeting—a target for headline CPI inflation with some weight on the output gap. These results are particularly relevant for emerging markets, where the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures is high and a large proportion of households are credit constrained. JEL Classification Nos.: E31, E52, E61